April 2026 - Market Overview - No Real Recovery Yet
The first three months of 2026 are pretty much in lock step with the first quarter of 2025. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. The average sale price across the Region is about the same as last month ($628,701 compared to $630,923). Down slightly by $2,272 with half the Region’s Municipalities lower than February and the other half higher. However, when we compare the average in March to the year-end from the previous year, we see that the first quarter of 2026 registered a gain of $18,471. $628,701 in March, compared to $610,230 at year's end 2025, which was the same period last year, the first quarter of 2025 saw prices actually drop by $6,053. Ending the year 2024 at $678,274, and by the end of March 2025, prices had only reached $672,221. Of course, you can’t put a lot of stock in these month-by-month fluctuations. Both years saw pretty radical swings from one month to the next. In the first month of each year 2025 and 2026, the average sale price dropped. But one year was much more drastic than the other. From December 2024 to January 2025, the average price fell by $31,585. However, in the same one-month period from December 2025 to January 2026, the market price fell by only $11,361. This speaks more to a volatility in the marketplace rather than a trend. Based however on the overall performance of the marketplace in 2024, and 2025, it would appear that the price gains of the first half of the year are moderating somewhat. On the one hand, we have the natural upward pressure of the traditional spring market. And there seems to be a pent-up demand, especially among young buyers to become active in the marketplace. And this is magnified by a slight uptick in mortgage rates, which creates a sense of urgency, along with a reduction in new inventory being added. But at the same time, the pressure of the war in Iran and the tariffs south of the border combine to put upward cost pressure not just at the gas pumps but also at the grocery stores, making a major mortgage commitment pretty daunting for a lot of would-be buyers. Now, what about market activity? How are overall sales comparing to last year? *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. Looking at the first three months of 2025 we see unit sales climbing month by month. With January 2025 coming in at 324, February 2025 at 368 and March 2025 registering 457 units sold. 2026 is almost a mirror image of that trend, with each month just slightly above the corresponding month one year ago. January 2026: 335 units sold, February: 386 and March: 460. So, 2026 logged a first-quarter total of 1,181 compared to 1,149 in the same period of 2025. An increase of 2.79%. What can we expect moving forward? A lot depends on what happens on the world stage. The conflict in Iran, which was expected to last only a week or two, is now being measured in months. The conflict in Ukraine in years. And the trade issues between Canada and the U.S.A. appears to have no resolution in sight. Until these issues change significantly, it’s doubtful that the real estate market is going to see a radical improvement. But we are now entering our fifth year of market recession. Traditionally, we should be in for a recovery soon. But I expect you’ll see signs of it first at the gas pumps and grocery stores.