August 2026 - Market Overview - No Surprise Turnaround Yet

In the last issue of our newsletter, we saw that the month of June marked the second month in a row that the average sale price across the Region increased, ending the second quarter at $675,326. And when you consider January had come in at $598,869, that’s a six-month increase of $76,457. What was a little bewildering, however, was the fact that also during that first half of the year, we had seen two consecutive months of decline, March and April. So, May and June’s uptick was a very pleasant, if unexpected, surprise. The question was, would it continue? Every year post-COVID, 2023 onward has seen the average sale price decline in the second half of the year. And the watershed month has always been July. Well, July sales numbers are now in and I hate to report it, but this year didn’t break ranks from that 4-year trend. Average across the region in July came in at $656,867. Down $18,459 or 2.73% from June. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. That’s pretty much in step with the initial declines of previous years, with the exception of 2024, which saw the average price for June come in at $744,110 and drop down to $690,054 in July. A drop of $54,056, or 7.26% in just one month. So, in spite of what a lot of pundits might tell you, I think I’d have to say that we’re not out of the woods yet. I think based on past performance it’s safe to guess that we’re going to see the balance of the year flatline at best as far as prices go and more likely lose a little ground. So, it remains an ideal climate for buyers to take advantage of the opportunities in the marketplace. Now let’s swing our attention over to market activity. How are unit sales holding up? *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. July registered a total of 579 units sold across the region. Down 35 or 5.7% from the 614 that came in in June. That’s not surprising. Generally, regardless of the overall market condition, we see activity slow over the last half of the year. Normally uniformly declining month by month through to December. And in most cases, this deceleration begins in July as well. The exception being last year, where we saw July numbers jump from a June count of 579, up to 648 in July, before dipping back to 527 in August and moving down steadily from there to year-end. So, with the exception of last year, where we saw that upward blip in July, we see the actual sale count for July this year compares very favourably with previous years, with 540 units being sold in July 2023, 529 in July 2024 and going all the way back to July 2022, where sales came in at only 395. I think at this point it’s pretty safe to assume the year 2026 will wind down with no real surprises. Prices will hold, may slide marginally to year-end. Unit sales will gradually decline as well. A definite turnaround is on the horizon, but it in all likelihood won’t begin till the spring of 2027.