December 2025 - Market Watch Newsletter - Market Overview - November Doldrums!

*Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. Looking at the sale figures for November, we see the average residential sale price is down not only regionally, but in 8 of the 10 municipalities we follow. That is not particularly surprising. It’s a trend that repeats itself year after year. Prices build in the first half of the year, and slide in the second half. Not every month, of course. Last year, for example, prices spiked in October for some reason. This year, there was a $5,205 bump up in September over August. But overall, the pattern holds. What is surprising, however, is the size of the loss in November compared to previous months, especially last year and again this year. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. Why November has been so hard-hit last year, and this is hard to say. Especially this year, when we have seen interest rates continue to fall into a much more affordable range. But it does serve as a reminder to us as to how much this post-COVID recession has impacted the market. Not only is this November down $39,338 or 5.89% from November one year ago. It is down $117,535 or 15.76% from the heady COVID-era days of November 2021, when the Region registered an average sale price of $745,970. November 2025 represents the lowest average of any month since the post-COVID recession began. By now, I think we are all aware that the losses we have seen in the second half of 2025 will be gained back in the first half of 2026. That’s simply a cyclical market trend. The question is, will those gains be sustainable, or will they slip away? April 2026 will mark the beginning of the 5th year of post-Covid recession. If the recession of the early 80s and 90s are any indication, and I’m sure they are, I expect we are at about the point of a turnaround, a momentum shift if you like, to upward sustainable price gains. If not 2026, certainly by 2027. But we shall see shortly. The other factor that is somewhat alarming and which sets this November apart is the number of unit sales registered. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. Across the Region, we saw a total of 436 units sold in November 2025. That’s down 67 units or 13.32% from October, and 144 or 24.83% from November 2024. It is, however, still significantly higher than the 374 total of November 2023. What is significant is the magnitude of the drop in one month. Last year, for example, saw a decline of 17 unit sales from October to November, and in 2023 the drop was 14 unit sales. So, 67 units is a significant shift down, and while I don’t believe it signals a permanent change, I think it speaks of the uncertainty of the economy, at least in the minds of the consumers.