January 2026 - Market Overview - Sharp Decline at Year End

In many ways, December sales figures held no real surprises. Ever since the end of COVID, we have seen the market numbers gain momentum in the first half of the year and then trail off over the last half. And here we are talking about both unit sales and average sale price. What is surprising, however, is the severity of the drop in average sale price in December. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. Let’s begin with the average sale price for December, which came in at $610,230. That is a drop of $18,205 or 2.90% from November. Keeping in mind that the November sale average of $628,435 was down $25,627 or 3.92% from October. Now, let’s step back and look at the picture for the entire year of 2025. In December 2024, we ended the year with an average residential sale price of $678,274, and now in December 2025, we see the average residential sale price came in at $610,230. That’s a year-over-year drop of $68,044 or 10.03%. So, all in all 2025 was a pretty tough year for prices in Niagara. Did we gain some ground in the first half of the year? Yes. Absolutely. But with the substantial drop in prices we saw in January 2025, together with the decline beginning in May, not July, we lost a lot more in the second half of the year than we gained in the first half. How far have we fallen? Well, if you go back to the heady days in real estate just near the end of Covid, we saw residential sale prices in the Niagara Region peak at $863,057 in February 2022. So, from that point to the end of the year 2025, we’ve lost $252,827 or 29.29%. That’s a lot. We know of course, that things will turn around. And, yes, we will gain back every dime of market value that we have lost. And from that point, we will gain ground at an accelerated pace. We know because we’ve been here before. What we don’t know is whether we have hit bottom yet? And if not, when is that likely to happen? The pundits of course, will be ready to explain the turnaround once it happens. But they are not nearly so good at predicting market trends in advance. Year-end saw the economists divided. Some convinced interest rates would continue to fall in 2026, while others explained that we have bottomed out and interest rates would now stay steady or perhaps begin to rise. Prices? The same thing. Some predict a further loss in collective value in 2026, while others see a recovery about to begin. Nobody really knows. What I think we can agree on is the fact that 2025 saw a sharper decline in prices than we saw in 2024. And that was a surprise. Especially since by now we should be easing to a stop in decline. So, what can we expect in January? December 2023 to January 2024 saw prices hold pretty steady. In fact, prices rose by about $4,000. But from December 2024 to January 2025, we saw the values drop by $31,585. A foretaste of turbulent times ahead. I firmly believe we are in the final stages of our post-COVID market recession. I have felt for some time that in 2026 the recovery should begin. But it will be a slow climb. And to hedge my bet, I want to say that there are a lot of variables at play right now that are highly unusual. Heavy tariffs are being enforced by the U.S. Venezuela is in turmoil and to a certain extent, under U.S. control. Western Canada sabre rattling about separation, to name just a few. All these things will continue to radically impact the market. But the consumer mindset is strongly in favour of home ownership, and the variables that affect affordability are moving in the right direction. We haven’t talked much about unit sales, but they are in lock step with what we have seen lately with prices. End of year decline. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. December saw only 348 units change hands in Niagara, compared to 408 a year ago. This softening trend was evident in November as well, with November 2024 seeing 580 sales recorded compared to only 436 in November 2025. In spite of that remarkable slowdown in November and December of this year, the fact is that the first 6 months of 2025 saw 461 fewer sales than we saw in 2024, while the last six months of 2025 registered only 131 fewer sales than the same period of 2024, and all that reduction occurred in the last two months. Further attesting to the fact that the market was moving forward, gaining ground until recent political events intervened.