July 2026 - Market Overview - The Upturn Continues

Last month, when we looked at the May sales figures, we were pleasantly surprised to see the average sale price across the Region spiking upward by $52,798 to $667,871. This on the heels of a two-month slide that saw prices in April drop to $615,073. And now June figures are in, and once again we see a month-over-month price increase, this time coming in at $675,326. While somewhat more modest than May’s numbers, that’s still an increase over last month of $7,455 or 1.12% and an increase of $60,253 or 9.80% from April. So, this is quite the turnaround. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. Now this next month will be interesting to watch. Typically, as we’ve seen the last 2 or 3 years, the market gains ground in the first 6 months of the year and then loses those gains over the last half of the year. In 2024, for example, the June average for the Region came in at $744,110, but in July it dropped off to $690,054. Then last year, it peaked early at $697,902 in April, dropping to $677,307 in June and down further to $663,841 in July. So, if history repeats itself, we can expect prices to drop off somewhat in July, and continue to lose a little ground to the end of the year. But with two recent months of solid gains, you never know. We may still see a little upward movement in July. Buyers are certainly active, especially at the entry level where demand is the strongest. Another positive sign emerges when you compare actual dollar figures year over year. June 2024 came in at a regional average of $744,110. That was after the market gained almost $100,000 in those first 6 months. But looking at the figures one year later, average prices had dropped year over year by $66,803, down to $677,307. And of course, continued to slide from there. But today, one year later, the average sale price across the Region, as we’ve seen, came in at $675,326, almost identical to a year ago. So now, depending on the trajectory and severity of change, we may be in a position where we start to see market gains consistently year over year. Something to watch carefully. Now what about market activity? How are our unit sales holding up? *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. In the month of June, we registered 614 units sold across the Region. That’s up 46 units or 8.1% from May. One of the realities is that while May at 568 units sold was up from April, it was down from the 628 sold the previous May, becoming the first and only month this year that 2026 monthly sales trailed behind the corresponding month one year ago. Now with June sales of 614 units, we are once again above the sales shown in June of last year, which came in at only 579 units. It’s also interesting to note that even with May’s strong numbers in 2025 and comparatively poor numbers for May in 2026, the first 6-month total is still marginally stronger in 2026, at 2,896 compared to last year's 6-month total of 2,873. Incidentally, the last 6 months of 2025 registered a total unit sold count of 2,976, 103 more than the first half. It’ll be fun to count the unit sales as they come in for the last 6 months of 2026. Now, I’m not climbing out on a limb and trying to suggest this is a sign of the market turning around. In fact, we saw number swings not unlike this back in 2024. But comparing this downturn to the downturn of 1980 and 1990, and there are marked similarities, we saw a turnaround begin around year 5, about where we are now, and the recovery was gradual at first, as I believe it will be this time. I expect personally we’ll see the market noticeably improve sometime in late 2026 or early 2027. But that’s really just an educated guess. In the meantime, I’ll watch the numbers and report what I see. Interesting times we’re in, to be sure.