June 2026 - Market Overview - Quite The Uptick

What a difference a month makes. We’ve been talking about trends over the last few articles. One trend that has been apparent since the end of COVID is the spring rise and fall decline in the market, both in terms of activity and especially in price. But another trend that has surfaced is the way the spring rise has been getting shorter and shorter and the fall decline longer and longer. In 2024, the average price across the region crested in June after gaining nearly $100,000 in that 6-month period. Then in 2025, the price peak came in April, after 4 months of more modest gains. Then this year, it appeared as though the ‘spring’ peak was happening in February, when we saw prices rise to $630,973 in February, drop to $628,701 in March and fall further to $615,073 in April. But now look at what has happened in May. The average price across the region has shot up to $667,871. That’s an increase of $52,798 or 8.58% from April and an increase since January of $69,002 or 11.52%. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. Of course, even in a spring upsurge or fall decline, there are always the occasional speed bumps along the way. A month here or there that defies the trend. But generally, not to this degree. It leads us to ask ourselves two questions: Why did this reversal happen, and will it continue? Don’t know. And if someone tells you they do, be sceptical. Personally, I think the real estate recession that we have found ourselves in since about April 2022 is running out of steam. We’re entering our fifth year of lacklustre performance. And if the downturns of the early 80’s and 90’s are any indication, and I believe they are, we are due for the beginning of a recovery. Timing is difficult to predict. Could be late 2026. Could be early 2027. But if May 2026 is any indication, good things lie ahead in the real estate market. Now, what about unit sales? Here, the message is a little more mixed. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. May 2026 registered a total of 568 units sold across the region. That’s up 35 units or 6.57% from April. However, it is down 60 units or 9.55% from the 628 logged in one year ago. And keep in mind, this past month, May is the first month that the unit sales are down from the unit sales of the corresponding month one year ago. Bear in mind though, that May 2025 was the second-highest month of the year 2025 as far as unit sales were concerned. So, are we spotting a positive trend? Too early to tell at this point. But two things that we can be sure of. One is that based on historical data, we should be seeing a market turnaround shortly, and two, there is definitely pent-up demand in the marketplace, especially among young buyers. You’ll want to watch the market very closely in the days and weeks ahead. June, I expect, will prove to be quite interesting.