March 2026 - Market Overview - Gaining A Little Ground

There’s a pretty well-established pattern that we see recurring year after year. The market strengthens over the first half of the year, but then recedes during the second half. And we are talking here both in terms of average price as well as the number of units sold. So, the fact that that’s what we are seeing in the early stages of 2026 should come as no surprise. What is significant, however, is the severity of these shifts either upwards or downwards. Let’s begin with the average sale price. In 2024, the average sale price across the region in January was $650,178, and that figure was up just slightly from the $644,067 figure where the market had ended in December of the previous year. But then watch what happened. February saw average prices rise to $657,881, and by March, it has climbed to $711,751. This trend continued to the end of June, when the average sale price had risen to $744,110. That was an increase of $93,932 over the first 6 months of the year. That was 2024. Now let’s compare that to the market dynamics in 2025. January 2025 recorded an average sale price across the Region of $646,689. But unlike the previous year, where the market gained by $6,111 from the previous month, January 2025 was actually down $31,585 from December 2024. Not a strong start. February saw the prices climb to $659,934, and by March, it had climbed to $672,221. But by June, 6 months into the year, the prices came in at $677,307. A gain of only $30,618. Quite a disappointment compared to the performance of the first half of the previous year. And a total gain that was not only lost in the second half of the year. It was decimated, with the average price by year-end 2025 registering only $610,230. A loss of $68,044 from the previous year. Is it any wonder that the Toronto Real Estate Board, the largest board not only in the province but in the entire country, said it was the worst market in over 40 years? But now, on to 2026. Let’s begin with the average price. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. We began the year 2026 with a January average sale price of $598,869. That’s down $11,361 from the year end 2025. Not the positive signal we saw at the start of 2024, but certainly a better performance than the start of 2025. But now look at February. As we expected, the average price is once again on the rise. But where in the year 2025 the market only gained $13,245, this year, February saw prices climb by $32,104. That’s a more substantial gain than was recorded in February over January in either 2025 or 2024. And while we are still below water compared to last year, we are moving in the right direction. From December 2024 to December 2025, the market saw a drop of $68,044. By February, we have whittled that year-over-year loss down to only $28,961. I realize it’s very early in the year, but it’s certainly trending in the right direction. And the same thing can be seen when we look at unit sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. In our last monthly newsletter, you may recall, we saw January’s sales figures come in across the region at 335. That’s up slightly from where we started the year 2025 with 324. But lower than the 371 figure registered in January 2024. So, based on one month’s activity, we’d have to say that 2026 came in weaker than 2024 but stronger than 2025. And that trend continues in February, where we recorded 386 units sold in 2026 compared to 368 in February 2025, but far below the 546 figure we enjoyed in February 2024. So just as we saw with the average price, we see 2026 coming in somewhere between 2024 and 2025. And that’s in spite of the brutal winter weather we had to contend with this year. March, of course, will be the real test. Last year, we recorded 457 units sold in March. And back in 2024, that number came in at 590. Each of those numbers is a far cry from the 386 we’ve just recorded now. Hopefully, that trend will continue this year into March, and if it does, we can expect prices to follow.