May 2026 - Market Overview - A Stalled Market

It’s typical in the spring market to see prices increase, usually over the first 6 months of the year. Then what we’ve watched happen over the past 3 years is those spring gains are pretty well wiped out in the second half of the year as prices slide to year's end. That was exactly what we saw in 2024 when the average residential price in January came in at $650,178 and by June had climbed to $744,110, an increase of $93,932. By year end, however, the market had lost steam and showed a December average of $678,274. That would appear to be a gain of $28,096. However, when you look at the next month, January 2025, you see the average price of $646,689, which means the actual 12-month year-over-year gain was actually a loss of $3,489. All the first-half gains were lost in the second half. But notice that the market peaked in June. The first half year saw the market gain ground. Now moving in to 2025 we see the January average came in at $646,689, down significantly from the $678,274 registered in December. But what is significant is that the market in 2025, rather than peaking in June, saw its best month being April, which came in at $697,902. And by year end the price had fallen to $610,230. Now on to this year, 2026. We started the year at $598,869, down $11,361 from the previous December. But by February, it had grown to $630,973. A gain of $32,104 in just one month. But look what has happened since. March down slightly to $628,701, a drop of only $2,272, but a drop none the less. And now April registering an average of $615,073 is another drop, this time of $13,628. What happened to the spring gains? The first 6 months of growth? In 2024, yes. In 2025, it was reduced to 4 months. Can it be now the first half-year hike is actually reduced to only a period of 2 months? We’ll see what May brings, but it’s starting to look like a radical reduction of spring market price gains. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. With the average prices trending downward more quickly, you’d expect to see a corresponding drop in unit sales, after all, demand drives price. And yet that is not what is happening. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. You’ll see in the above chart that the unit sales for 2026 are pretty much a mirror image of 2025, with each month from January to April 2026 being higher than the corresponding months of the previous year. I’ve included the year 2024 to show that, in spite of modest gains in the first months of 2026 as compared to 2025 (1,714 as opposed to $1,666), these results are a dim reflection of the 2,141 logged in over the first 4 months of 2024. So, with the unit sales holding, and even gaining slightly year over year, why are the prices still falling and why have we seemingly lost our spring market? Good questions. And along with increased sales, we haven’t even discussed reduced inventory, which seems to be the case in most Ontario markets this spring and which should also boost prices. I think what we are seeing is pent-up demand, but manifesting itself mostly with first-time buyers and investors, both of which tend to head toward the low end of the market. And with that in mind, I think the slide in average prices is more reflective of buyer trends than it is of lost value. However, both are playing a part. As we’ve said for the past couple of months, a lot of what we are seeing is macroeconomics in play. People want to get back into the real estate market. But the world needs to get its house in order. Until that starts to happen, the real estate market will no doubt continue to give mixed signals and poor overall performance.