November 2025 - Market Overview - A Traditional Pattern

There have been a lot of unusual external pressures affecting the market, not only over the course of 2025, but especially in the final months of the year. The tariff issues with the U.S. continue to make headlines. The Bank of Canada once again cut its benchmark rate by 1/4% and on top of that, there is all the uncertainty surrounding the newly introduced Federal Budget. And yet, in spite of it all, the real estate market continues to follow a pretty predictable path as set out over the past few years. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. What we’ve seen post-COVID and especially during 2023 and 2024 is a market that makes substantial price gains over the first half of the year, followed by a period of softening prices through to the end of the year. The average residential sale price in September 2025 came in across the Region at $668,716. But here in October, that figure has dropped to $654,062. A decline of $14,654 or 2.19%. At the same time, however, October’s average is only down $9,779 or 1.47% from July. Still a decline, but not a terribly severe one. Now, when we contrast that with the trend in the last half of 2024, we see that October one year ago came in $17,670 above September, but that was very much an anomaly. By November of 2024, prices had slid back down to $667,773. And then December rallied to $678,274, meaning from July the total drop was relatively minimal. Only $11,780. So strong first half followed by a slide in price over the last half seems to be the norm. And so overall, we don’t really gain any ground. At least not lately, as we’ve seen, October 2025 is actually down $39,682 from October one year ago. And since the average in 2024 ended the year at $678,274, it seems pretty apparent that we won’t fare as well in 2025. Another interesting thing is that there is no consistent trend across municipalities. Looking at the chart above, we see that in October, exactly half the municipalities saw price gains from the previous month, while the other half lost ground. Niagara Falls, for example, gained $5,148 month over month, while St. Catharines lost $33,615 during that same one-month time period. Now let’s take a look at unit sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' inputted MLS sales. Traditionally, activity trails off as we move toward the end of the year. I say traditionally because that trend simply did not apply in 2024, where September saw sales come in at 512, followed by 563 and 580 for October and November, respectively. That just wasn’t normal. This year, by contrast, is behaving in a much more traditional fashion, with registered trades for October coming in at 503, following on the heels of 514 in September, 527 in August and 648 in July. Still quite strong for the fall, but trending slower as one would expect. I think it’s fair to say the market activity will continue to slow to year-end, while at the same time, prices will remain relatively flat. We know that come spring, both prices and unit sales will increase. That’s pretty much a given even in the post-COVID recessionary period. But after 4 years, we should soon see an upward acceleration. Will that result in gains that will outpace the losses of the last couple of years? Time will tell.