September 2026 - Market Overview - Staying True To Form

We’ve watched a trend emerge right on the heels of COVID and continue each year since. And it applies both to market activity and average sale price. That trend is upward movement during the first 6 months of the year followed by a downward slide over the last 6 months. Of course, some of this can be chalked up to seasonal cycles. We’ve always referred to the spring market as the time of heightened activity, and of course the winter months tend to be challenging to be out and about. And the watershed month tends to be June. That’s traditionally the peak. And July is when the market turns. That’s what we saw in last month’s newsletter when July sales figures came in, and prices across the region were down $18,459. Well, August figures are now in, and that downward trend continues. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. Across the Niagara Region in August, the average sale price came in at $638,077. That’s down another $18,790 or 2.86% from July, and a total of $37,249 or 5.52% from June. That price drop is actually much more drastic than was experienced last year, when the downward trend really occurred most dramatically in November and December. July 2025 registered an average sale price of $663,841, down $11,485 or 1.70% from June and August last year averaged $663,508, down only $333 or 0.05% from July. Does that mean we’re going to lose a lot more ground in the second half of 2026 than we did in 2025? I don’t think so. While the downward trend over the last 6 months seems like a pretty consistent pattern, the rate of decline is not uniform each month. In fact, some months will actually show an uptick, like September did last year. But before we celebrate the long-awaited turnaround in the market, consider this. The average sale price across the region in August 2024 was $688,774. In August 2025, one year later, that average had dropped to $663,508, and as we’ve seen, this year has now come in at $638,077. An upsurge in price is on its way, but not this year. As I’ve said, I think the best we can hope for between now and the end of the year is a relative flat line in average price. The good news is that we can count on an upsurge in prices early in 2027, and that upward momentum will carry forward at least till June and probably beyond. Now, what about sales activity? What’s happening on that front? August saw a total of 504 firm transactions, down 75 units or 12.95% from July. *Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members' input into the MLS sales. And when we compare that to 2025, we see a much more drastic drop from July to August, with July chalking up a total sales volume of 648 units and that number dropping by 121 units to 527 sales in August, a decline of 18.67%, which means that while July this year showed significantly less activity than a year ago, August, while still down by 23 units from 2025, is a bit closer. I don’t expect we’ll see anything unusual in the way of sales activity between now and the end of the year. The seasons tend to be a pretty strong indicator of trends. We saw the first 6 months of this year come in almost exactly in line with last year, up marginally. And although the first two months of the 2nd half of the year have started off somewhat down, I wouldn’t be surprised if we gain those numbers back by year end.