Expert advice, market reports, and tips from the Niagara Region real estate professionals.
The sales figures are in for August, and at first brush they are quite alarming. Substantial month over month drops in almost every municipality! St. Catharines down $30,277 or 4.53%, Niagara Falls down $67,057 or 9.80%, Fort Erie down $59,352 or 8.56%, Welland down $51,894 or 8.44%, Thorold down $38,944 or 6.12%. And the Niagara Region as a whole down $37,048 or 5.16%. And that’s in just one mont
The average price across the region continues to paint a blurry picture. Last month you may recall, the price was up from May by $30,562 or 4.33%. But May was actually down from April by $12,602 or 1.75%. Now the sales figures have come in for July and the average is a somewhat disappointing $717,398. That’s down from June by $19,093 or 2.59%, pretty much where it was at the end of April. Still up $61,061 or 9.30% from year end 2022 which is encouraging. But it’s finding it difficult to make solid headway. Gaining one month and then giving back some of those gains the next.
It’s always interesting to look at the numbers each month as they come in and see how they compare to the ‘feel’ of the marketplace. The numbers are now in for June and once again they seem to be giving a mixed picture. Let’s start with price.
The May sales figures are in and they paint a somewhat mixed picture. On the negative side, prices across the Region are down slightly from April. This reverses a three-month trend that saw figures rise around 10% from year end 2022. On the positive side, both number of listings and number of sales are up significantly from last month. And that’s a very good sign. First, let’s look at price trends.
It’s been a roller coaster ride when it comes to prices in Niagara ever since the onset of Covid. But in fact it goes back even further than that. Going back all the way to 2017 we have seen price gains in residential properties that were for a number of years previously just unheard of. In fact over the calendar year 2017 average prices grew by just over 25%.
Back last August the average sale price of residential property across the region came in at $695,328. And that price held pretty steady for three months: (August - $695,328, September - $695,205, October - $691,041). After peaking at $863,057 back in February 2022, the prices slid pretty steadily for the next 6 months up until August. It seemed that prices had bottomed out and were now pretty stable. But that was not the case. Beginning in November the average price began to soften again and this continued through January, which recorded an average all the way down at $627,561, a drop of almost 10%. But now, in February and March that downward trend has reversed, and gained back all those recent losses. March average came in at $694,280, a gain of $66,719 or 10.63%.
Last month as you may recall we saw a significant drop in average sale price across the region compared to those recorded in December, down – 4.38% or $28,776. At the same time, however, we sensed a feeling of optimism in the marketplace.
I’m optimistic about the market for 2023 and beyond. You might wonder why looking at the sales figures for January. According to the numbers, we see that the average sale price across the Region came in at $627,561, which is a drop of $28,776 from December or 4.38%. That’s sizeable.
There was a period of time in late summer, and early fall, when it appeared that prices in Niagara had stabilized. August, September, and October showed average prices in the Region being $695,328, $695,205 and $691,041 respectively. That puts the average during that 3-month period consistent within about 1/2%. A statistically insignificant variation. But that changed again now at the end of the year. In November we saw prices fall by $13,074 or 1.99% to $677,967 and again in December with the average sale price in Niagara coming in at $656,337 we are seeing another single-month drop of $21,630 or 3.2%.
Last month we took a look at the fact that both here in Niagara and around the globe, economies are in turmoil. Inflation is running at a pace we haven’t seen in almost 40 years, and as a result, governments are scrambling to control it by raising interest rates. That situation hasn’t changed. In fact, even in the face of a possible recession next quarter, the Governor of the Bank of Canada has vowed to stay the course of interest rate hikes in order to combat inflation. We’ll see. So far that tactic hasn’t had much of an effect on run-away inflation, but it has definitely impacted the housing market.
